Football: VHSL Proposes Modified Ratings Formula to Work with 2013-15 Preliminary Model

(March 15, 2012) - The Virginia High School League is proposing the most sweeping changes to its postseason model since the current A, AA, AAA classification system was put into place in 1970 and with  that comes a need for working models.

While football has already expanded to six classifications -- which is the proposal for all sports starting the 2013-15 two-year cycle -- the change from the current set-up of district play to regional play to state play with the advent of a new postseason structure that includes an all-in conference level for other sports followed by region and state play means that football would have to change its postseason structure.


Football because of game limitations can not be an all-in model, so there would still be a maximum 5-game postseason road to a state title in each of the six classifications but the proposed model would have teams move from regular season into two 16-team Regions, essentially the state divided into two sectionals.

The winner of each region or sectional would then play for the state title.

Briar Woods, for example, won a state title last year by winning three games in its 8-team regional followed by state semifinals and state finals. Under the new proposal, Briar Woods would have won four games in a 16-team regional followed by a state title game.

Since the proposed new model includes schools of up to three divisions playing in the same district, a modified football ratings formula would be needed. Here is the current proposal to meet the needs of the new system if approved by the VHSL:

Modified Football Ratings Formula
The baseline power rating scale approved by the Football Ratings Committee in February 2012 is the starting point.  To that formula is added a “bonus point formula” for use with district regular season football schedule.  In districts where multiple classifications are represented higher classification teams will be awarded bonus points for playing lower classification teams in a district regular season schedule.  A lower classification team will not receive bonus points for playing higher classification teams since lower classification teams receive more points for playing a higher classification team under the baseline power rating scale.  Two bonus points will be awarded to the higher classification for each classification level difference between two opponents.

Example
A district of nine schools with 2 class six schools, 3 class five schools, 2 class four schools and 2 class 3 schools. 

The class six schools will receive 26 bonus points (6 points for playing the three class five schools, 8 points for playing the two class four schools and 12 points for playing the 2 class three schools) in the district regular season schedule. The class five schools will receive 12 bonus points (4 points for playing the 2 class four schools and 8 points for playing the two class three schools) in the district regular season.  The class four schools will receive four points for playing the two class three schools in the district regular season.

NOTE:  No points will be awarded to any classification for playing a lower classification school
as a non‐district opponent.

If this model had been in place last fall, with the new proposed six classifications (keeping in mind that schools will shift based on enrollment and classifications will be more equally divided in the new plan), how would have Loudoun teams fared? Well the VHSL has run a "What If" model and here is what would have happened with these modified ratings and possible future classes:

In Class 5A North, Stone Bridge would have been the No. 1 seed with Broad Run a No. 2 and Briar Woods a No. 3. Tuscarora would have been a No. 8 seed.

In Class 4A North, Loudoun County would have been the No. 1 seed with Heritage No. 6 and Park View No. 15.

The VHSL will decide on the sweeping changes by the fall 2012 with any new plan not starting until the 2013-14 school year.